Monday, March 7, 2022

Ulkraine & The Lessons Of History

History appears to be repeating itself in the War In Ukraine.  Given past history, the odds are pretty good that this will turn into a wider war for a variety of reasons.  

First, appeasement never works when dealing with a Dictator.  The world allowed Putin to invade Georgia and Ukraine taking over territory in the process and here we are today.  If Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he will target Moldova next and take over the rest of Georgia.  Belarus is already a puppet of Putin so it is likely that he will annex Belarus too.  Putin's real target is the Baltic Countries all of which belong to NATO and then we are at World War III.  Most important, all of this will embolden China to attack Taiwan.  

Second, sanctions don't work when dealing with a Dictator because Putin does not care about the Russian people.   However, Putin sees sanctions designed to destroy the economy of Russia as an act of war.  It is only a matter of time before he responds in the only way he can without using nuclear weapons and that is cyber terrorism.  When we stop the sale of oil and gas coming from Russia and it is coming, they will use cyber terrorism against Western oil and gas companies to disrupt the flow of energy to nations supporting the embargo.  Then all bets are off.  And, continuing to supply weapons including airplanes to Ukraine is bound to lead to confrontation with Russia.  

Third, it is clear that the only way for smaller countries to protect their sovereignty is by being a nuclear nation.  If Ukraine had retained its nuclear weapons about 4,000 at the time, Russia would never have invaded.  The message it sends to North Korea, Iran and others is that they must be nuclear nations.  So we will see the proliferation of nuclear weapons.  We can expect to see Brazil, Japan, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia and maybe Australia go nuclear.  Israel is already nuclear.  They will just add to their capabilities.  

Fourth, all of this has solidified the Axis of Evil, China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.  The only one that really matters is China because of the Supply Chain that they control.  China can hold the world hostage by denying access to many products.  China will backstop Russia, which is another reason why sanctions will not work.   China will soon attack Taiwan and then what?

There are many lessons coming out of the war in Ukraine; but none of them are a surprise.  A weak Joe Biden is not helping matters.  We have seen this story before because history is in fact repeating itself.  It only ended when the dictators were killed after millions died.  Let's hope the Russian people take Putin down long before we see the rest of this story unfold.   

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