Friday, March 18, 2022

The New World Order - Not So Fast

China hopes to replace the United States as the sole superpower in the world to create a New World Order.  Not so fast.  First, English with Latin and German roots is the common language of the world.  That is not going to change any time soon.  Unless the Chinese plan to learn English, which very few of them speak, you can bet that the rest of the world is not going to learn Chinese because it is radically different than all other languages commonly in use.  If China wants to head a new World Order, they will have to replace their language with English, which their pride will make that impossible to do.  It is just as hard for them to learn English as for Westerners to learn Chinese.  

Next, with the sanctions the West was able to do against Russia because of the war with Ukraine, we see the reach of the US/EU financial system.  It is so powerful that it will literally destroy the Russian economy.  It is both dollar and Euro based as the currencies of major commerce in the world.  China's currency and financial system cannot compare with the combined power of the United States and the European Union.  Further, the gross domestic product of the United States and the European Union is more than double the gross domestic product of China.  And, while China's economy continues to grow, it will not surpass the combined GDP of the United States and the European Union any time soon.

Finally, China has hitched its wagon to Russia an economic basket case with an economy the size of France before all the sanctions were imposed, Iran that does have oil, and North Korea another economic basket case.  China has expanded its reach to Africa and South America to some degree; but none of those countries except maybe Brazil is any kind of power house.  This is not much of a New World order.  In addition, the war in Ukraine has solidified NATO like never before as both an economic and military alliance.  China and Russia cannot expect to replace NATO and other US alliances in Asia Pacific any time soon.  

Finally, as a result of the war in Ukraine, there will be intense pressure for the United States to bring major industries that are critical to our national security back to the United States.  This will be done with tariffs on Chinese goods and tax incentives to make it happen.  Once this occurs, the Chinese economy will shrink.  The US can and should be completely energy independent, which China can only be with more nuclear plants and coal.  Otherwise, China must buy oil and natural gas from foreign countries because they are not resource rich.  Given all of these factors, China can forget about creating a New World Order with them in charge.  It can only happen if Western leaders are stupid, which is always possible. 

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