Senator Rick Santorum - The Real Winner In Iowa

Though former Governor Mitt Romney technically won the Iowa Republican Caucus by 8 votes, it is really former Senator Rick Santorum that was the real winner.   Santorum went from being at 3% in the polls a few weeks ago to getting 25% of the voters by using retail politics.   Santorum visited all 99 counties in Iowa and spent just $21,000 on his race there.  Mitt Romney spent several million dollars to achieve the same 25% of the voters he got 4 years ago, which is actually a set back for him.  Romney has been running for President for more than 5 years; yet he has not be able to get more than 25% of Republicans to support him because he is a born again Conservative who is not trusted by the base of the Republican Party.    It is important to realize that 75% of the voters in Iowa did not vote for Mitt Romney primarily because many do not believe Romney is a real Conservative. 

So where do we go from here.   Michelle Bachmann wisely pulled out of the race as a result of her poor showing in Iowa and lack of money.   My hope is that Rick Perry will stay in the race through South Carolina and Florida to see if he has any legs in the South; but Perry may very well decide to pull out too.  As much as I like Newt Gingrich, it is this Blogger belief that Gingrich is too intellectual and undisciplined to be President of the United States.   Further, Gingrich just has too much baggage that will not go away.   It would be best if Newt Gingrich pull out of the race, which probably will not happen for now.  

Ron Paul is Ron Paul, both to the right of all Republicans on fiscal issues and to the left of Socialist President Obama on national security and foreign policy.  It does not get more odd.  Paul will not be the Republican nominee; but he will go to the Convention in Tampa with 10 - 15% of the delegates and they will be zealots.  It is highly unlikely that Paul's delegates, once released after the first ballot, will vote for Mitt Romney.  They are instead more likely to vote for whichever real Conservative Republican Candidate goes to the Convention with 30% or more of the Delegates and that may very well be Rick Santorum.  

Let's talk about Ohio.   No Republican has been elected to the Presidency in the last 100 years without carrying Ohio.   And, while other states are also important, the fight will be in Ohio because the Reagan coalition lives there.   In order to win, any Republican must maintain the base of the Party, which is staunchly Conservative and attract both Independents and Blue Collar Conservative Democrats, many of whom are union members.   This Blogger was born in Ohio and I still have relatives there.   These are salt of the earth, hard working people that cling to their guns and religion.   Obama, the arugula eater, who vacations in Hawaii, is too intellectual for Ohio, which is the reason Ohio is in play.   The reality is that Ohio voters must feel they can have a beer with the guy they vote for and that will not be Obama this time around.  

This is the reason that Rick Santorum may be the guy.   Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, both Mormons, born with a silver spoon in their mouths and both very wealthy cannot relate to the working man or woman in Ohio.  Rick Santorum is Italian and Catholic just like this Blogger and many people that live in Ohio.   Santorum's immigrant grandfather was a coal miner so he has blue collar roots that run deep.   It is true that Rick Santorum lost his last race for the Senate in Pennsylvania in 2008 when Obama was swept in; but is also true that Pennsylvania just elected Pat Toomey to the Senate as a very Conservative Republican.  Pennsylvania also elected a Republican Governor in 2010 so that state is in play.   Most important, Abraham Lincoln lost his race for the Senate to Steven Douglas in 1858; but then went on the win the Presidency in 1860.   Richard Nixon not only lost his race for the Presidency in 1960, he was also defeated when he ran for Governor in California in 1962 and then went on to win the Presidency in 1968.   So timing is everything and that fact that Santorum last lost in Pennsylvania is irrelevant. 

Rick Santorum is a both an unapologetic Social and Economic Conservative, who spent several terms in the House and the Senate.   As such, Santorum has far more experience that Barack Obama.  Santorum is right on the issues.  Santorum can relate to the working men and women of Ohio, without whom a Republican will not be elected President.  We will have to see how the remaining primaries play out; but this Blogger believes that Santorum would have a better chance of beating Obama than Gingrich, Romney or Huntsman.   Rich white guys like Romney and Huntsman play right into Obama's Class Warfare strategy.   About the only thing Obama can say about Santorum is that he is a real Conservative.   So what! Santorum can unite the Reagan Coalition, the base of the Republican Party, Conservatives Blue Collar Democrats and Independents.  Though this Blogger never was a beer drinker, I ready to have a beer with Rick Santorum.