Sunday, May 8, 2022

Nuclear War - What Happened To MAD

Since nuclear weapons were invented, countries with nuclear weapons always operated under the premise of MAD.  In other words, there was a recognition that no country could win a nuclear war because there would be Mutual Assured Destruction if the missiles ever started flying.  So why do we have Russians talking about destroying NATO countries in 30 minutes if they begin a nuclear war as though there would not be immediate retaliation that destroys Russia at the same time.   The answer is Russian History.  

Russia has an inferiority complex that goes back hundreds of years.  It actually started with Tzar Peter the Great.  It is a relatively poor country with an economy the size of France.  If not for oil and gas and military hardware, Russia does not produce much that the world wants to buy.  They sell a little caviar, vodka and maruska dolls.   So they only way Russia has any status in the world is as result of its nuclear weapons.  Let's not forget Russia lost in Afghanistan the same way the United States had to exit that God awful country.  So, it is not as though Russia has never lost a war.   

However, Ukraine is not Afganistan.  Ukraine has been part of Russia on and off for centuries.  Losing in Ukraine will to not be acceptable to Putin.  Given the destruction Putin is already causing, he really does not need to use Chemical or nuclear weapons to destroy the whole country.  As long as the West keeps supplying sophisticated weapons to Ukraine and the Ukrainians are brave enough to keep fighting, Russia will not prevail.  The real question is how long will Putin tolerate those weapons coming into Ukraine.  

The Russians could destroy all the airports, rail lines and truck routes into Ukraine using missiles and bombers to stop weapons from getting to the Ukrainians.  It is really surprising that it has not already happened.  At some point, without weapons the Ukrainians would have to officially surrender.  They could continue a guerilla war, which would be likely; but that will not stop the Russians in the short term from taking over the country and removing the current government to install a puppet.  Of course, this is not in Russia's interest because the sanctions will continue and only get worse wrecking Russia's economy.  

So, we hear talk of nuclear war.  Unless Putin is completely insane, which could be possible, it is highly unlikely that the Russians would dare use nuclear weapons.  Even France has reminded Russia that they have nuclear weapons too as does Britain.  Clearly, nuclear weapons fired by the United States, Britain and France would destroy Russia in 30 minutes so most likely MAD is still operable.  

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