Saturday, February 2, 2013

Careful - Stock Market Hits 14,000 - Good News?

Under normal circumstances, the announcement that the Dow Jones on the Stock Market has hit 14,000 would be good news.   But let's consider the facts.   Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has continued Quantitative Easing, pumping billions of dollars into the economy each month, which is destroying the value of the dollar.   Unless investing in junk bonds that are risky, the rate of return on any normal investment instrument like Certificates of Deposit, or Treasury Bills is peanuts at 1 - 2%.   This is causing investors to put money into the stock market to either earn higher dividends, or presumably appreciation on stock.

American companies used the Recession as an excuse to get rid of dead wood, laying off millions of employees in the last five years, so they are lean and mean; hence more profitable.  And, while stock prices have gone up, it is more reflective of the dollar's falling value and an inability to get a decent return on a safer investment, rather than real growth in the economy.   This is really an inflation indicator.  Let's not forget that GDP growth in 2013 is likely to be less than 2% for the year.  And, unemployment is still stubbornly high with more than 23 million Americans either unemployed, under employed working part time, or they have just given up looking for work altogether, with no end in sight, thanks to Drama Obama. 

A 14,000 point Dow scares the hell out of this Blogger.   It should be Buyer Beware.   When ever we have seen big jumps like this in the stock market, we usually see a big crash sooner than later, particularly when the fundamentals do not support stock prices.  On the other hand, we are going to have very high interest rates and inflation in the near future as a result of the destruction of the dollar.   So, like betting in Las Vegas, there could be big winners and very big losers.   This is all just a matter of timing, certainly nothing Socialist President Obama is doing to restore economic growth and job creation again in America.  

No comments:

Post a Comment